The Impact of COVID-19 on Farmers' Economic Income in Hubei Province of China

Mingzhe E, Zhao B and Cao J

Published on: 2021-02-15

Abstract

This paper discusses the statistical measurement of the impact of COVID-19 major emergencies on farmers' economic income in Hubei Province. Hubei Province was selected as the object of analysis, and five data of total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and per capita disposable income of farmers in Hubei Province from the first quarter of 2013 to the second quarter of 2020 were collected by using the Internet. Since all the collected data were macroeconomic data, these data were taken the logarithm to meet the economic significance.

The per capita disposable income of farmers was taken as the response variable, and the main factors affecting farmers' income were obtained by factor analysis. Livestock husbandry and fishery industries were the main industries in Hubei Province. Then the score of factor analysis were taken as explained variable to establish regression model composed of influencing factors. This paper use the multiple linear regression, support vector regression to fitting and forecasting data, ARIMA model of time series analysis, introduced at the same time, through the AIC model choice, with the first quarter of 2013 to 2019 in the second quarter fitting training, backward prediction two quarters, and three or four quarter of 2019 compared with the real data, through to the predicted results of the sequence diagram and evaluation index model to compare the mean square error (RMSE).

Three models predict per capita disposable income of farmers in the first and second quarter of 2020. It has been found that performance better ARIMA model in the model compare is worse than before, and three kinds of predicted values are higher than the real value of the model, showed the outbreak to the influence of the agricultural economy in hubei province is serious.On this basis, taking into account the characteristics of geomorphic climate in Hubei province, the constructive suggestions are put forward.

Keywords

COVID-19; Multiple linear regression; Support vector regression; ARIMA model

Introduction

Thanks to the hard work of the whole nation, the epidemic prevention situation in China has been constantly improved, and the order of production and life has been quickly restored. In order to win the critical period of building a well-off society in all aspects and the decisive battle against poverty, the impact of COVID-19 epidemic on agriculture and rural economy should be scientifically studied and judged, and appropriate responses should be made. It is of great significance to ensure the well-being of a well-off society and the quality of poverty alleviation.

The impact of COVID-19 on agricultural economy mainly includes the impact on the supply of agricultural products, the impact on livestock, poultry and aquaculture, the impact on the supply of agricultural materials and spring tillage preparation, and the impact on the international trade of agricultural products, etc [1,2].

Research on the relationship between agricultural industrial structure and economic growth from the perspective of farmers' income level: Chen Kai [3] used the grey correlation method to analyze the relationship between rural household operating income and the output value of planting, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery in the Yangtze River Delta region. Yang Zhong-Na et al [4] analyzed the impact of agricultural structure and its changes on agricultural growth in southern Xinjiang from 2000 to 2011, and pointed out that agricultural industrial structure has restricted agricultural economic growth, indicating that the relationship between agricultural industrial structure and agricultural economic growth is spatially regional [5,6].

Therefore, it is very important to analyze the impact of the epidemic on agricultural economy, which can guide the direction of agricultural structural reform.