Appling Generalized Linear Models to Measure the Influence of Road Traffic Accidents; the case of Kembata Tembaro Zone, Ethiopiae

Handiso A and Mekebo G

Published on: 2021-03-18

Abstract

Vehicle is one of the most widely used transport alternative and the major source of road traffic accidents in the world. Due to road traffic accidents, a greater part of road users could not return to home: farewell this world for once and all, spent long days, weeks, months, and even years in hospitals, and never be able to work as they used to do before. In Ethiopia, the rate of road traffic accidents is very high; because road transport is the major transportation mechanism along with poor road infrastructure, poor traffic laws enforcement and other factors. The aim of this paper is thus to scrutinize the trends, causes, and economic implication of road traffic accidents in Kembata Tembaro zone. The data was obtained both Primary and Secondary sources, to collect the primary data the researcher distribute questionnaires that are used to select respondents and structural form of interviews. . In this study, stratified random sampling technique was adopted as an appropriate sampling design for selecting a representative sample based on study area.  The Count data, such as accident fatalities are better modeled using Poisson, Negative Binomial and Conway- Maxwell Poisson regression models. Based on the deviances, AIC and BIC of the respective fitted models it appeared that only Negative Binomial model performed best as compared to Poisson and the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson models. The predictors in this model were investigated using their respective p-values and was found out that improper overtaking and right angle as a collision type, Inexperience and too fast as driver errors, Motor cycle and minibus as type of vehicle, Fog and rain as weather condition and day Light condition were the key predictors variables contributing significantly to the expected number of persons to be killed in road traffic accidents in Kembata Tembaro Zone.