Methodological Foundations for Developing and Applying an Expert Model to Assess the Effectiveness of the Tax System

Salomovich AS

Published on: 2026-08-03

Abstract

This article substantiates the scientific and methodological approaches to developing an expert model for assessing the effectiveness of the tax system of the Republic of Uzbekistan under the conditions of digital transformation of tax administration. It is shown that expert assessment complements statistical analysis with professional judgments and makes it possible to account for the qualitative parameters of the tax system, including the digital maturity of tax authorities, the quality of electronic services, the transparency of procedures, the effectiveness of risk-based control, and the reduction of corruption risks. A stepwise methodology is proposed, including the formation of an expert group, the selection of assessment factors, questionnaire surveying, the construction of a matrix of expert judgments, the calculation of Kendall's coefficient of concordance, and the verification of significance using the χ² criterion. Based on a survey of 25 experts across 10 factors, weight coefficients and priority directions for improving tax administration were determined.

Keywords

Tax system; Expert model; Digital transformation; Tax administration; Kendall's coefficient; x² criterion

Introduction

Under the conditions of digital transformation of public administration, assessing the effectiveness of the tax system requires a comprehensive approach that accounts not only for fiscal outcomes but also for the institutional, organizational, technological, and behavioral aspects of tax administration. Traditional indicators — such as the volume of tax revenue, the collection rate, the tax burden, arrears, and the effectiveness of control — do not fully reveal the quality of the tax system's functioning under conditions of digitalization.

In this regard, expert assessment — based on the synthesis of professional judgments of specialists in taxation, the digital economy, information technology, and public administration — acquires particular scientific and methodological significance. This approach makes it possible to supplement quantitative analysis with qualitative characteristics that are difficult to capture through official statistics and formalized indicators.

The proposed expert model is aimed at assessing the digital maturity of tax authorities, the level of development of electronic tax services, the transparency of tax procedures, the quality of interaction with taxpayers, the professional competence of personnel, the effectiveness of risk-based control, the degree of automation of management processes, and the impact of digitalization on reducing administrative barriers and corruption risks.

In this study, the expert model is considered an independent component of the author's three-stage model for assessing the effectiveness of the tax system of the Republic of Uzbekistan, which combines statistical analysis, expert judgments, and institutional interpretation of results. This approach makes it possible to form a more balanced and substantively grounded assessment of the tax system under conditions of digital transformation of tax administration [1-5].

The aim of the study is to scientifically substantiate the expert model for assessing the effectiveness of the tax system of the Republic of Uzbekistan under conditions of digitalization of tax administration and to determine its place within the system of comprehensive assessment of tax reforms [6-11]. To achieve this aim, the methodological role of expert methods is revealed, the necessity of their integration into the comprehensive assessment of the tax system is substantiated, the stages of the expert model are formed, the factors of expert assessment are determined, expert data are processed, Kendall's coefficient of concordance and the χ² criterion are calculated, and the weight coefficients of the factors are determined [12-17].

Materials And Methods

The methodological basis of the study was formed on the basis of general scientific and special methods that ensure the development, empirical testing, and quantitative verification of the expert model for assessing the effectiveness of the tax system of the Republic of Uzbekistan under conditions of digital transformation of tax administration. The study employed the expert assessment method, questionnaire survey, ranking of factors, and matrix systematization of expert judgments, statistical testing of the consistency of expert opinions, and calculation of the weight coefficients of the factors.

The use of the expert method is justified by the fact that the effectiveness of the tax system cannot be fully revealed solely on the basis of quantitative statistical indicators. Alongside fiscal, administrative, and control indicators, qualitative parameters of tax administration are of substantial importance: the digital maturity of tax authorities, the accessibility of electronic services, the transparency of procedures, the effectiveness of risk-based control, the level of automation of management processes, and the reduction of corruption risks.

Empirical testing of the expert model was carried out on the basis of a questionnaire survey of 25 experts representing the fields of taxation, digital technology, public administration, science, education, analytics, and public activity. The selection of experts took into account their professional competence, practical experience, awareness of the digitalization processes in tax administration, and their capacity for objective assessment of the factors under study.

The expert assessment was organized around 10 factors reflecting the key directions of the digital transformation of the tax system of the Republic of Uzbekistan. The scores obtained were systematized in matrix form, which made it possible to determine the aggregate values for each factor, assess the consistency of expert opinions, calculate the weight coefficients, and identify priority directions for improving the effectiveness of tax administration [8-12].

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