Unraveling The Drivers of Vietnam’s Coffee Exports to CPTPP Nations through a Gravity Lens

Quynh PNH

Published on: 2025-11-21

Abstract

This paper employs a gravity model to examine the determinants of Vietnam's coffee exports to member countries of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). This research is based on secondary panel data from 2013 to 2022, encompassing data from Vietnam and the remaining 10 CPTPP member countries, as well as 11 non-member countries for comparison. The Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) method was applied for estimation to address issues of heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation. The results reveal that Vietnam’s GDP, as well as the GDP and population of importing countries, significantly enhance coffee export turnover, while Vietnam’s growing population reduces exportable supply due to rising domestic demand. Interestingly, geographical distance shows a positive effect, suggesting that improvements in logistics and supply chain efficiency have mitigated traditional trade barriers. By contrast, the real exchange rate and inflation are insignificant, while CPTPP membership has a modest negative effect during the study period, largely reflecting the disruptions and challenges of COVID-19 in meeting the strict standards and rules of origin. Methodologically, this study contributes by combining the traditional gravity framework with insights from trade competitiveness analysis, thereby providing more nuanced evidence on sector-specific trade dynamics. Based on the results, policy priorities should focus on boosting production and productivity, targeting large and populous markets, improving logistics for distant partners, and strengthening compliance with CPTPP standards to enhance Vietnam’s coffee export competitiveness.