EX ANTE and EX POST to Understand the Recent Past and Near Future
Published on: 2022-12-26
In this moment of the balance and forecasts for the New Year to come, I consider that the famous economic terms coined by Gunnar Myrdal, from the Stockholm School of Economic Thought in 1937, are still valid, even of a scale that exceeds the strictly economic. In fact, the Stockholm School introduced the anticipations in Economics. The same phenomenon, process, or variable can be analyzed both ex ante and ex post, as forecasts for the next periods and at the time, or after their realization. Important is to see and understand in which point we are now, at the end of 2022.
KeywordsEconomics; Quality; Teaching; Success
In this moment of the balance and forecasts for the New Year to come, I consider that the famous economic terms coined by Gunnar Myrdal, from the Stockholm School of Economic Thought in 1937, are still valid, even of a scale that exceeds the strictly economic. In fact, the Stockholm School introduced the anticipations in Economics. The same phenomenon, process, or variable can be analyzed both ex ante and ex post, as forecasts for the next periods and at the time, or after their realization. Important is to see and understand in which point we are now, at the end of 2022. Therefore, we have to begin with ex post term, in order to see what is the situation now, after several important challenges and facts and, after that, to draw not a strategy, but merely a a tactics plan, because decisive is to promptly answer/re-action to unexpected and perturbing factors of any nature, that may occur. That is, to design the content of the exante term for forecasts. Ex post term indicates us that we are after pandemics era, with the great and serious problems produced on people’s lives and their activities. Death toll was huge in the majority of states, especially in the developed and emerging countries. The economic activity took place with difficulty, people working from home in online system. Also, psychologists and sociologists demonstrated the negative influence of blackout and quarantine on human behavior and psyche, especially of children and youth. In order to slow down the economic collapse, states or supranational bodies such as European Union have established funds to support sectors with losses, or with deep unemployment, especially technical one. Another existing reality is the war in Ukraine and gas and oil crises in the period when winter is coming. What to do? Find other sources of gas and oil from the neighborhood of Europe, but costly transportation. Capping the price of Russian oil and imposing savings on lighting and heating (around 19?C inside buildings) are other measures to ensure the development of the economies, not using the fuels from Russian Federation, due to this war in Ukraine. Furthermore, we speak about the huge increase of the rate of inflation, which reached around 15 % and, in some states, it exceeded 20%. Inflation represents a structural imbalance in the economy, an increase of the general prices level, negative situation which erodes the increase in income and decrease the standard level of people. To reduce money supply by increasing interest rates and increase the competitiveness and performances of the economies, by a raised labor productivity and, by consequence, a desired profitability, are the most important means to reduce the inflationary pressure. Passing to ex ante analysis, when we deal with forecasts, it is advisable to do such a valid and correct forecast of the nature of a medium term strategy. This kind of strategy, in these unpredictable and challenging conditions, is the best to use. Speaking in the language of the Human Resources function, it is needed that our actions, the businesses to be precaution and cushioning in order to take over the external impact/challenge without too much damages and losses. The well-functioning of a firm/company/organization depends on the way of combining the factors of production and on the nature of the relationships between entrepreneurs/CEOs and employees/staff, that is the human resource function. It is also a result of the pandemic period of COVID 19, when work from home, online and short working hours (kurzarbeit) prevailed. Starting with the Great Resignation (which will continue in 2023, but in lower proportion), passing thru quiet quitting to career cushioning and a higher stability at the work/job, all the parts/factors involved in are responsible to the existence of the entity and sustainability of it on the specific market. As a conclusion, to enrich the knowledge in Economics and other sciences, I maintain that experiences of any kind to be revealed and published in our journal, exactly as the erection of a building (of knowledge in our case), brick over brick, niche with niche, so that we can say that we all have something to gain. And, in economic language (everything that surrounds us is economic fact), the small gain, success, the profit no matter in which proportion, encourage us to continue and to ensure progress (economic growth in the short and medium term). At the same time, the flexibility in working activities, appropriate motivation, negotiations at work, or in business actions, along with a flexibility and adaptability of the firms (maybe type spaghetti or ricotta-not so malleable) are the keys for a correct forecast, ex ante prefiguring of the business in its reason of being. Along with following the challenges and threats or opportunities on the market, the image is complete. We are waiting you with paper in different economic domains and also in border sciences with Economics of a high scientific, theoretical, but above all, practical level, for the enrichment of the heritage of knowledge, but also examples of good practice.