Macroeconomic Determinants of CO2 Emissions: Evidence from A Generalized Least Squares (GLS) Analysis
Wissem R
Published on: 2026-05-02
Abstract
This study explores the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI), economic growth, renewable energy electricity production, population density, and inflation on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in eight emerging countries over the period 1970-2024. Using the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) method, the empirical results reveal that economic growth is positively associated with carbon emissions, which verifies the environmental Kuznets curve theory. Foreign direct investment (FDI) also has a positive and statistically significant effect on CO2 emissions, justifying its role in environmental degradation and validating the "pollution refuge" hypothesis. On the other hand, renewable electricity production and population have a significant negative impact on carbon dioxide emissions. In contrast, inflation has no robustly detected effect on CO2 emissions. In order to support the energy transition and the accomplishment of sustainable development goals, these findings encourage government to think about policies that are specific to their own circumstances.
Keywords
Economic growth; Foreign direct investment (FDI); Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions; Renewable electricity production; Emerging countries; Generalized least squares (GLS) modelIntroduction
Today, climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing the world. The increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the combustion of traditional fossil fuels (coal, gas, oil, etc.) is a phenomenon linked to human activity. These emissions can lead to environmental degradation by affecting the proper functioning of natural ecological systems, the survival of humanity [1] [2] [3] and air quality [4] [5]. It is important to note that industrialised countries bear a major historical responsibility for the climate changes that are causing the current warming, the intensification of extreme weather events and the rise in sea levels. Consequently, without a framework agreement on climate change, global warming trends are confirmed, with an increase in emissions and an intensification of impacts. As indicated by [6] the increase in CO2 concentration therefore remains a major challenge for global sustainable development, particularly in developed economies. For developing countries, the rapid growth in emissions linked to their economic and demographic development is the subject of debate among international researchers and a key topic in international negotiations. Faced with these environmental challenges, policymakers are considering implementing strategies to reduce emissions a priority. This approach is part of the Paris Agreement in 2015, which aims to strengthen the commitment of developing countries to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 and limit global warming to 1.5°C, as reported by [7]. Despite efforts by developing countries to reduce CO2 emissions, these have increased in many African countries [8]. Among these countries, Equatorial Guinea, Libya, Seychelles, and South Africa have recorded an increase in CO2 emissions above the global average of 1.3 metric tons of carbon per year [8].
In environmental terms, the energy strategy of developed and developing countries, highlighted at the United Nations Climate Change Conferences in Copenhagen in 2009 and in the Paris Agreement in 2015, is a positive development for climate policy. For this reason, reducing CO2 emissions has become an energy priority for every country in order to ensure a low-carbon environment [9]. According to the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change published in 2006 and presented in the article by [7], the cost of implementing proactive measures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is lower than the effects of climate change. Based on [10], the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energies is at the heart of the global search for solutions to climate change. Indeed, global energy consumption, particularly of fossil fuels, accounts for 80 to 95% of global primary energy demand. This high level of energy consumption requires the search for alternative energy sources capable of ensuring economic growth without harming the environment [11]. The reason why several countries, particularly industrialized ones, are embarking on significant technological advancements focuses on renewable energy sources such as hydroelectricity, wind energy, solar energy, tidal energy, and geothermal energy [12]. Although previous empirical literature [9] [13] [14] [5] has highlighted the important role of renewable energy, economic growth and FDI in improving environmental quality, this research makes an additional contribution by studying the influence of these factors on environmental degradation.
This study contributes to both theoretical and empirical literature: firstly, by providing specific insights into how foreign direct investment, economic growth, renewable energy, electricity generation, population density, and inflation affect environmental degradation. Secondly, by giving relevant guidance for implementing policies that are adapted to their realities, we can achieve sustainable economic growth and carbon neutrality in the global economy, as stated by [14].
This research is aimed at empirically studying the impact of key macroeconomic determinants on CO2 emissions in a sample of eight emerging countries using the generalized least squares (GLS) models. However, this study addresses a gap in previous and current literature and meets a crucial requirement for evidence-based public policy. We have no knowledge that any previous work has examined this topic in these countries. The ecological consequences of inflation are the subject of study in this manuscript for the first time. In fact, this paper adds to the literature by examining the impact of macroeconomic diversity on CO2 emissions in a sample of eight emerging countries through empirical analysis. Contrary to previous studies, this mainly focused on a single region or a limited number of variables [15] [1] [11]. This research extends previous studies and effectively explains environmental dynamics by utilizing a cross-regional comparative approach and macroeconomic and energy factors. This study differs from previous work in its use of the generalized least squares (GLS) model, which corrects for heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation in panel data. The generalized least squares (GLS) approach is a better choice for emerging countries with significant macroeconomic and energy heterogeneity, as it provides more efficient and robust estimators. The originality of this study also lies in its use of numerous indicators that directly or indirectly degrades environmental quality over a period of more than five decades, from 1970 to 2024.The length of the period allows for consideration of various economic and energy shocks, enhancing the reliability of estimates based on the generalized least square (GLS) model.
The structure of this research paper is as follows: Section 2 consists of a review of the literature. The data and estimation methodology are discussed in section 3. The empirical results are explicated in Section 4. The conclusion and main policy recommendation of the paper are presented in Section 5.
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