The Economic and Social Costs to Not Consider Some Respiratory Viruses as Airborne
Luisto M, Fiazza C and Oleg YL
Published on: 2020-10-29
In actual second wave of covid-19 pandemia it is interesting to observe also the economic and social effect related some diffusion and spread modality principally considered by some healthcare international and national authority. If direct contact and by droplet transmission was well accepted as major mechanism the AIRBORNE possibility of transmission was considered less relevant. But observing nowadays velocity in increase in covid- 19 cases among France or Spain countries in a very few Weeks seen to show that other modality of transmission must to be take in consideration.
KeywordsCovid-19; Coronavirus; Pandemia; Economy; Healthcare management; Social science; Infectious disease; Airborne; Air pollution; Prevention; Opens the window strategy; Management; Accounting
The second wave of covid-19 pandemia presented an characteristic and original Epidemiological Behavior whit in a little time window high number of positive covid-19 subject in some countries like France, Spain, UK [1-5].
Figure 1: Coronavirus cases increasing in European countries in recent weeks.
This kind of spread seem not follow only the PATIENT ZERO THEORY due the few time involved in a logarithmic explosion of cases. Other factor must be investigated in a new light. In previous INTERNATIONAL HEALTH CARE ORGANIZATION related pandemia was Highlighted the direct contact and by droplet transmission as relevant route. But airborne transmission was not considered as crucial factor. Two great factor and 1 cofactor, but it is true and correct this approach? In WHO document 3 March2020 Getting your workplace ready for COVID-19 was reported: During the meeting events: “Open windows and doors whenever possible to make sure the venue is well ventilated” The pandemia have produced and it is producing and will produce a very complicated economic situation Whit high influence on social life of many people. Many business and economic activities was stopped or reduced global sales volume in many field Commerce, travels, sports, holidays, restaurant, hair salon, gym, theatre and so on. This crisis produced and produce or will produce reducing in PIL and sales volume and also reduced taxes due to loss of business opportunity. Aim of this work is to evaluate this aspect but related not adequately consider also AIRBORNE way of trasmission. According article: CORONAVIRUS Top World Bank economist says coronavirus pandemic morphing into 'major economic crisis' 'This is a war,' said Carmen Reinhart “This did not start as a financial crisis but it is morphing into a major economic crisis, with very serious financial consequences,” World- Bank Chief Economist Carmen Reinhart told Bloomberg [6-8]. “There’s a long road ahead.” She said the “longer the uncertainty, the longer the pandemic works its way through the global- economy, the bigger the balance sheet damage this is a war,” she said about central -banks trying to keep yields low by buying bonds. “During wars governments finance their war expenditures however they can and right now there are dire needs." 2020 · Matteo Lucchese. The Coming Coronavirus Crisis: What Can We Learn? The financial crisis has arrived “With fears of a harsh credit -crisis and a major collapse in economic- activity, the spreading of the pandemic crashed financial markets all over the world. Between 19 February and 20 March 2020, the S&P500 index at the Wall Street Stock- Exchange lost 32%. In London, the fall of the FTSE100- index was in the same range. In Italy – the first European -country to be infested by the pandemic – the Milan FTSE MIB index lost 38%.” (5) Timothy Laing: “The Covid-19 global pandemic has not only caused infections and deaths, but it has also wreaked havoc with the global economy on a scale not seen since at least the Great- Depression. Covid-19 has the potential to destroy individual livelihoods, businesses, industries and entire economies. The mining sector is not immune to these impacts, and the crisis has the potential to have severe- consequences in the short, medium and long-term for the industry. Understanding these impacts, and analyzing their significance for the industry, and the role it plays in wider- economic development is a crucial task for academic research” (9) Rahmiye Figen Ceylan: “Like wars and socio-politic shifts, contagious diseases have changed the economics and politics of the world throughout history. In 2020, the world faced COVID-19, a globally effective- virus leading to mass losses and socio-economic panic. Due to apparent psycho-social conditions, analyzing the potential economic- effects of the COVID-19 pandemic was inevitable. Thus, discussing economic- effects of previous global and regional- epidemics is considered beneficial. This research evaluated most of the known epidemics and their effects on economics and socio-politics by reviewing scientific- literature. In addition to the vast literature and observations on the ongoing -process, we assessed the potential impacts of COVID-19 and potential ways to overcome these impacts. The most urgent socio-economic measures needed to combat the negative- effects of a contagious disease are related to un-employment with its income effects and security of all sectors. To prevent persistent un-employment, service, retail, and even industrial sectors need to be supported. Additionally, we discussed the need for re-organizing the funding and managerial sustainability of healthcare- services to be prepared for future.” (9) Like wars and socio-politic shifts, contagious diseases have changed the economics and politics of the world throughout history. In 2020, the world faced COVID-19, a globally effective virus leading to mass losses and socio-economic panic. Due to apparent psycho-social conditions, analyzing the potential economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic was inevitable. Thus, discussing economic effects of previous global and regional epidemics is considered beneficial. This research evaluated most of the known epidemics and their effects on economics and socio-politics by reviewing scientific literature. In addition to the vast literature and observations on the ongoing process, we assessed the potential impacts of COVID-19 and potential ways to overcome these impacts. The most urgent socio-economic measures needed to combat the negative effects of a contagious disease are related to unemployment with its income effects and security of all sectors. To prevent persistent unemployment, service, retail, and even industrial sectors need to be supported. Additionally, we discussed the need for re-organizing the funding and managerial sustainability of healthcare services to be prepared for futureAntoine Mandel: “This paper estimates the cost of the lockdown of some sectors of the world economy in the wake of COVID-19. We develop a multi sector dis-equilibrium- model with buyer-seller relations between agents located in different countries. The production- network model allows us to study not only the direct -cost of the lockdown but also indirect-- costs which emerge from the reductions in the availability of intermediate inputs. Agents determine the quantity of output and the proportions in which to combine inputs using prices that emerge from local- interactions. The model is calibrated to the world economy using input-output data on 56 industries in 44 countries including all major- economies. Within our model, the lockdowns are implemented as partial reductions in the output of some sectors using data on sectoral- decomposition of capacity reductions. We use computational experiments to replicate the temporal sequence of the lockdowns implemented in different -countries. World output falls by 7% at the early stage of the crisis when only China is under lock-down and by 23% at the peak of the crisis when many countries are under a lockdown. These direct impacts are amplified as the shock propagates through the world -economy because of the buyer-seller relations. Supply-chain spillovers are capable of amplifying the direct impact by more than 2 folds. Naturally, the substitutability between intermediate inputs is a major determinant of the amplification. We also study the process of economic- recovery following the end of the lock-downs. Price flexibility and minor- technological adaptations help in reducing the time it takes for the economy to recover. The world economy takes about one quarter to move towards the new- equilibrium in the optimistic and unlikely scenario of the end of all lockdowns. Recovery time is likely to be significantly greater if partial lockdowns persist”. (10)
The Coronavirus 2019 (Covid-19) global pandemic has not only caused infections and deaths, but it has also wreaked havoc with the global economy on a scale not seen since at least the Great Depression. Covid-19 has the potential to destroy individual livelihoods, businesses, industries and entire economies. The mining sector is not immune to these impacts, and the crisis has the potential to have severe consequences in the short, medium and long-term for the industry. Understanding these impacts, and analysing their significance for the industry, and the role it plays in wider economic development is a crucial task for academic research.
Keywords: COVID-19, Economics, Mining
Maria Nicola: “COVID-19 has affected communities, businesses and organisations globally, inadvertently affecting the financial- markets and the global -economy. Un-coordinated governmental- responses and lockdowns have led to a disruption in the supply -chain. In China, lockdown restrictions significantly reduced the production of goods from factories, while quarantine and self-isolation -policies decreased consumption, demand and utilisation of products and services. As COVID-19 has progressed to affect the rest of the world, China will begin to recover faster than the rest of the countries, strengthening its trade- negotiating power against the US. In fact, chinese companies will be in the advantageous position to acquire their western- counterparts, which are greatly dependent and will be inevitably affected by the stock- market. In addition to the disruption in the supply- chain, the capital market sector has also been affected. In the US, the S&P 500, a stock market- index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies on the US stock- exchange, the Dow Jones Industrial- Average and the Nasdaq fell dramatically until the US- government secured the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, with the indexes raising by 7.3% , 7.73% and 7.33% respectively . 10-year US Treasury bond yields have dropped to 0.67%. “(11) Debanjan Banerjee: “Intern. j. social psichiatry “The world is facing a global public- health crisis for the last three months, as the coronavirus disease 2019 -(COVID-19) emerges as a menacing- pandemic. Besides the rising number of cases and fatalities with this pandemic, there has also been significant socio-economic, political and psycho-social impact. Billions of people are quarantined in their own homes as nations have locked- down to implement social-- distancing as a measure to contain the spread of infection. Those affected and suspicious cases are isolated. This social- isolation leads to chronic loneliness and boredom, which if long enough can have detrimental effects on physical and mental well-being. The timelines of the growing -pandemic being uncertain, the isolation is compounded by mass- panic and anxiety. Crisis often affects the human mind in crucial- ways, enhancing threat arousal and snowballing the anxiety. Rational and logical decisions are replaced by biased and faulty- decisions based on mere ‘faith and belief’. This important social threat of a pandemic is largely- neglected. We look at the impact of COVID-19 on loneliness across different social- strata, its implications in the modern digitalized age and outline a way forward with possible solutions to the same. “(12) Krishna P. Reddy: “In South Africa, a strategy of household contact -tracing, isolation, and mass symptom screening would substantially reduce COVID-19- mortality and be cost-effective. Adding quarantine- centres for COVID-19 contacts is not cost-effective.” (13) Jagdish Sheth: “The lockdown and social- distancing to combat the covid-19 virus has generated significant disruptions on consumer- behavior. All consumption is time bound and location -bound. With time flexibility but location rigidity, consumers have learned to improvise in creative and innovative- ways. The work-life boundaries are now blurred as people work at home, study at home, and relax at home. Since the consumer is unable to go to the store, the store has to come to the consumer. As consumers adapt to the house arrest for a prolonged period of time, they are likely to adopt newer- technologies which facilitate work, study and consumption in a more convenient- manner. Embracing digital technology is likely to modify existing habits. Public- policy will also impose new consumption habits especially in public places such as airports, concerts, and public- parks.” (14) Cintia Chamorro-Petronacc: “The COVID-19 - pandemic is an ongoing public -health challenge, also for the dentistry -community. The main objective of this paper was to determine the economic and health-care impact of COVID-19 on dentists in the Autonomous- Region of Galicia (Spain). This was a descriptive observational- study in which the data was collected by means of a self-administered survey (from 1 April 2020 to 30 April 2020). A total of 400 dentists from Galicia responded to the survey. Only 12.3% of the participants could obtain personal protective equipment (PPE) including FFP2- masks. Of the male respondents, 33.1% suffered losses >€15,000 compared to 19.4% of female- respondents (OR = 3.121, p < 0.001). Economic- losses seem to have contributed to the applications for economic help as 29.5% of the respondents who applied for this measure recorded losses in excess of €15,000 (p = 0.03). Patients complained more about the fact that only emergency- care was available during the State of Alarm, in dental- surgeries that do not work with insurance companies or franchises. Only 4 professionals tested -positive, 50% of whom worked exclusively in private practice and the other 50% who practised in both private and public- surgeries. Dentists who practise in the public sector saw more urgent patients per week than those practising in private -surgeries (p = 0.013). The COVID-19 pandemic has had economic repercussions in dentistry as only urgent -treatment was available during the State of Alarm. These repercussions seem to be higher in male participants, as the majority of the participants have revealed higher economic losses than females. The level of assistance has also been -affected, reducing the number of treated- patients, although this quantity has been different in private and public -surgeries. By presenting these findings we look to highlight the role that dentists play in society in treating dental -emergencies in our surgeries, and this must be recognised and addressed by the relevant- authorities, who must provide PPEs as a priority to this group as well as providing special economic- aid in accordance with the losses incurred by the sector.” (15) Alexandra Peters “The infection prevention and control (IPC) measures to limit or prevent HAIs caused by the SARS-CoV-2 are crucial to combatting this pandemic. Hand -hygiene is widely recognized as the most effective and economically -viable measure in IPC.” (16)
Other fact to be taken in consideration is the role played by air pollution to produce worsening condition that increase mortality rate.” (7), (8) Counting the cost of COVID-19Mohammad Yamin “The World Health -Organization WHO has framed some guidelines and measures to check or slow the spread of COVID-19 to the community. Some of these measures are also summed up in. Here we provide a summary of these kind of measures. First and foremost, it is highly recommended to wash- hands properly and regularly. Whenever the hands are exposed to any surface, the hands should be washed with soap for at least 20 s. Use of hand- gloves is helpful in preventing exposure of hands to contaminate- surfaces and places. Protective- gears for medicos are a necessity but the case of medical and medical- workers will be dealt elsewhere. Frequent and regular use of sanitizers- (creams, gels, sprays) is also recommended. There seems to be some controversy about the effectiveness of face -masks. Various outlets have frequently reported the shortage of medical -grade masks (N95) due to high demand for medical- professionals and general public globally. The Centers for Diseases and Prevention (CDC) has also advised people to use face -masks, and even use cloth masks if proper ones are not available. Studies have revealed that even the best face masks cannot prevent some unfiltered- air getting through. In order to make them highly effective, social -distancing is recommended to reduce the risk of contaminated droplets being spread from an infected person to other people through coughing or sneezing. Self-isolation is also a very useful- technique to prevent the spread of COVID-19.” (17) The velocity in spread and the mortality rate was influenced by this condition. An also this produced and produce economic and social disaster. Because this fact is not adeguately considered by many countries not permitted to contrast this negeative effects.The same considering some worsening factor involved in this kind disease it must be considered also depurative measure like mask use not only to prevent virus exchange but also to prevent air pollution that contribute to the severity of disease also. The same other fact to be considered is that some depurative strategies in pulmonary chronic condition can help to reduce severity of the relapses due by air pollution [9-15].
In example global cost can be related to:
- Diagnostic test surplus
- Meical devices
- Hospital beds
- Reduced working activitie
- Taxes not gathered Commercial activities reduced
- Restaurant (in example by smart working)
- Closed activity and many other
Effect: social crisis, economic and financial vicious circle. Industry less trade. Positive effect: on distance activities, smart working, on distance school and education, universities Social media use , ICT use, on line working meeting, reducing in transport of workers and student Food at home , home delivery commerce , on line e- commerce, telemedicine and so on.
Material and Methods
With an observational approach some relevant (for this work) literature is reported. All source comes from open literature after this review phases an experimental hypotesis is produced to make possible verify the statement of the topics of this short communication [16, 17].
The literature used for this work is reported in section reference. All the references are to be fully read to correctly understand the global meaning of this work. Experimental hypothesis :only for economic and social effect In order to verify if considering FULLY AIRBORNE actual pandemia can provide real economic advantages versus not consider in this way. Under all ethical condition respected it can be useful consider 2 cities of among the same population 1 city following criteria of prevenction for direct contact and by droplet (as today rules) 1 city following also criteria of prevention also for AIRBORNE TRASMISSION in strictly way. The variables to be measured are: Total healthcare cost for pandemia Lockdown days Questionary of people wellness, quality of life Total cost losted by local economic activity. After a period of 3 mount in winter season a statistical analisys must be collected. If result considering airborne fully are better of this condition public authorities must take in consideration.
The reported WHO document related the need to open the window to change indoor air in working setting in March 2020 was a relevant indication to be followed. Even if not adequately highlighted the AIRBORNE risk this kind of indication gives the sense of a real problem. Not only mask, social distancing, contact tracing, hand disinfection, diagnostic testing, lockdown and many other measure but also CAHNGE THE AIR in closed environment. Not only direct contact and by droplet but also measure to diluite the air in indoor places. The fact that in a school of an advanced countries in October 1 positive produced 17 infected even if obliged to use mask and hand disinfection seem to say some think other. As conclusion of this work is to submit to the public international authorities and government the need to deeply consider also the effect of airborne transmission to prevent the negative economic and social effect of a respiratory pandemic. The open the window measure is a very low cost measure that also not produce high trash and easy to be followed by all. This measure if consider in march by WHO was not considered in many country as a STRONG INDICATION like mask use or social distancing or hand disinfection. But it is needed to give to this the right highlight because every preventive measure can be adequately measured under an economic point of view. A right analysis of all transmission way ,worsening factors, and the right management instrument help nation to overcome lockdown and avoiding negative affect on economy and society of the second pandemic wave. A table need 3 legs to stand up, so the same in a pandemia it must be considered all transmission route and not only 2 (so not only direct contact or by droplet, but also airborne mechanism need to be considered). The actual pandemia is due by a RESPIRATORY VIRUS, a virus that follow a relevant respiratory pattern of diffusion. Economy cycle follow social life and health of population. Economy science must also follow the measure adopted to control a pandemia and their efficacy Application and consequences.
This work is produced without any diagnostic or therapeutic intent, only to produce research hypothesis in economic-social field. It is clear that all preventing-treating measure to contain spread of covid-19 disease produced by government and international health organization must be followed.
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