Past versus Future Situations Regarding Cost of Cultivation of Rice Crop in India: Implication to Doubling the Farmers Income

Mahajan S

Published on: 2021-09-17

Abstract

In the present study, the secondary time series data of cost of cultivation and profit of rice crop from 2004-05 to 2014-15 have been taken as endogenous variable with exogenous variables as cost of machine labour(CML), cost of seed(CS), cost of fertilizer & manure(CFAM), cost of insecticides(COI), irrigation charges(IC) and fixed costs(FC). The methodologies, Quantile Regression (QR) and the Box-Jenkins have been applied on the cost of cultivation and profit of rice data. On the basis of findings, it has been observed that by minimizing the variables CS, COI and FC, the profit of rice growers will be maximized as per the QR model(s). Further, the time series model(s) have been developed in order to forecast the cost of cultivation of rice crop for India. The best model for cost of cultivation was ARIMA (0 1 1) on the basis of AIC and SBIC criterion. The forecasted value for the cost of cultivation of rice crop for the year 2020-21 shall be Rs 60495.90 per hectare. In addition, the gain in profit percentage w.r.t cost have also been calculated and has been observed it shall be 120.08 percent for the forecasted year 2020-21 on the basis of proposed model.