Wave Patterns of Cumulative Dynamics for the Parameters of Covid-19 in the Russian Federation from March 25 to December 31, 2020

Mazurkin PM

Published on: 2021-01-25

Abstract

Using the identification method based on statistical daily data on four Covid-19 indicators of the dynamics of the sum of values, quanta of pandemic behavior and responses from the health care system in the Russian Federation from March 25 to December 31, 2020 were identified. The general wavelet equation is presented in the form of a solitary wave equation, which, with an infinite period of oscillation, turns into a biotechnical law proposed by the author of the article. It is shown that the sums of the values of the pandemic parameters as "infected", "cured", "died" and "cases = infected + cured + died" from March 23 to December 31 in Russia received two superimposed bulges as in the amplitude of oscillations with infinite , that is, a much larger measurement time interval of 282 days, a period. That being said, the big bulge will continue into 2021. According to the computational capabilities of the CurveExpert-1.40 software environment, the general trigonometric model contains up to 4-5 components with a general correlation coefficient above 0.99. It has been proven that the nature of the spread of the virus has the form of a set of finite-dimensional wavelets with variable amplitude according to the biotechnical law and, as a rule, with a decreasing oscillation period. In these features, the dynamics of a pandemic differs from the behavior of natural and natural-anthropogenic objects of study, which also have infinite-dimensional wavelets with an amplitude in the form of Laplace's law (in mathematics), Mandelbrot's law (in physics), Zipf-Perl (in biology), Pareto (in econometrics). By modeling the standard deviation depending on the ordinal number in the list of wavelets, and without taking into account the constant term, it has been proven that the parameters of the Covid-19 pandemic also have a fractal distribution of wave equations. But their dynamics depends entirely on the behavior of the epidemiological system of each country. As a result, the Russian healthcare system has been at the proper height to counter the pandemic since May 3, 2020.