Bounds Testing of Exchange Rate Effect on Economic Growth

David IJ, Bamigbala OA, Adubisi DO, Danjuma I, Agog NS and Ikwuoche PO

Published on: 2023-01-23

Abstract

The anticipation of any country is to have high output strength but in the presence of a high exchange rate (ER) such belief is unfeasible because a high ER is a sign of a rigid economic system. In this research, ER effect on Nigerian economic growth (EG) is studied from 1986 to 2018 using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds test approach to determine the co-integration existence between ER and EG and determine the long-run movement through the approach of Error Correction Model (ECM). The results obtained showed that an ARDL (2, 0) model was the best-fitted model for the sampled data based on the smallest Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) value obtained. Also, it was found that ER has a positive effect that is not significant to Nigeria EG at the long and short-run dynamics with an unstable parameter estimates as portrayed by the CUSUM square chart.

Keywords

ARDL; Exchange rate; Economic growth; Co-integration; Error correction model; AIC

Introduction

The Exchange rate (ER) is one of the developmental macroeconomic variables. ER is simply the worth of one currency (domestic currency) in the relationship with another (foreign currency). ER can be influenced by foreign trade and as well as domestic production of valuables and services. Ogunleye opined that ER can be easily triggered by external shocks emanating from world prices of major commodities like oil whose volatility is always of high impact, unlike agricultural commodities whose volatility impact is always less because of large trading partners as against oil with few trading partners [1]. According to Onuorah & Osuji [2], ER operates through an aggregated demand channel. It has been argued that the decreasing ER give room for the international competitiveness of domestic goods which helps in improving the current account balance of the country. Also, international competitiveness improvement of domestic goods facilitates an increase in export which in turn increases the aggregate demand in the economy. Attaining the aim of guaranteeing that rates do not continuously rise is very important because if the aim is not attained then serious microeconomic and macroeconomic penalties arise. On this note Asekunowo [3] argued that redistribution of wealth may bring an ascending movement of prices which could inspire the hoarding of unspent income, escalate the rate of borrowing and consequently compel asset expenditure by investors at the microeconomic level while an upward inflationary burden may cause exportation of goods and services in an economy to diminish because the prices of tradable may lose competitiveness in the international markets thereby depressing foreign procurements and intake of such tradable at the macroeconomic level.  The resultant effect of this is that the national income of the economy may fall with adverse consequences on the economy’s employment (increased unemployment), consumer price index, EG and possibly development.